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WMT Investment Analysis Report

Last updated: 4/6/2025

Business Understanding

Walmart Inc. is a global retail powerhouse operating over 10,500 locations worldwide, including 5,251 internationally, with a business model centered on its "Everyday Low Prices" (EDLP) strategy [1]. Founded in 1962, the company has evolved into one of the world's largest retailers, offering hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores across multiple markets [1]. Walmart's core focus remains on providing value through competitive pricing while expanding its e-commerce capabilities to compete in the digital retail landscape [2].

Latest Quarterly Performance

  • Reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 20, 2025, with EPS of $0.66, beating consensus estimates of $0.64 by $0.02 [1]
  • Quarterly revenue reached $180.55 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $178.83 billion [1]
  • Next earnings report scheduled for May 15, 2025, with market expectations of $0.59 per share [3]
  • Maintained strong performance trend with consecutive quarters of earnings beats throughout fiscal 2025 [1]

Revenue & Growth Analysis

  • Annual revenue for fiscal year ending January 31, 2025, reached $680.99 billion, representing 5.07% year-over-year growth [1]
  • Consistent revenue growth trajectory with 5-year CAGR of 5.38%, demonstrating stable expansion [3]
  • Revenue growth has accelerated in recent years, with 6.03% growth in 2024 and 6.73% in 2023, compared to 2.43% in 2021 [1]
  • Quarterly revenue for Q4 2025 showed 4.13% growth, indicating continued momentum [1]
  • International operations contribute significantly to overall growth, with 5,251 locations outside the United States [2]

Financial Health

  • Total debt of approximately $60.11 billion, with long-term debt at $39.3 billion as of January 31, 2025 [1][2]
  • Net debt position of approximately $39.2 billion after accounting for cash reserves [3]
  • Strong balance sheet with total shareholder equity of $91.01 billion and book value per share of $11.34 [1]
  • Current liabilities of $96.58 billion against total assets of $260.82 billion, indicating a manageable debt-to-asset ratio [5]
  • Healthy interest coverage ratio, with EBIT covering interest expense by 13.8 times, suggesting minimal debt service pressure [3]

Management Quality

Walmart is led by President and CEO C. McMillon, who has served in this role for over 11 years and maintains significant ownership in the company with 0.057% of shares valued at approximately $381.7 million [1]. The executive team includes CFO John Rainey and Global CTO Suresh Kumar, both bringing substantial experience to guide Walmart's digital transformation and financial strategy, with the leadership team actively participating in investor events to maintain market communication [1][3].

Valuation

Based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, Walmart's intrinsic value is estimated at $114.53 per share, suggesting potential upside from current market prices [5]. The company trades at a P/E ratio of approximately 42.34, reflecting market expectations for continued earnings growth of 18.43% next year [1]. Despite appearing moderately undervalued based on EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales multiples compared to industry averages, the high P/E ratio indicates investors are pricing in significant future growth [3].

Risks and Concerns

Walmart faces intense competition from both traditional brick-and-mortar retailers and e-commerce giants like Amazon, which threatens to erode its market share and pressure profit margins [2]. Additionally, market saturation in the United States limits domestic expansion opportunities, while economic volatility and supply chain disruptions pose ongoing challenges to maintaining profitability, as evidenced by periods of declining consolidated net income despite strong sales figures [2].

Conclusion

Walmart presents a compelling investment case based on consistent revenue growth, strong market position, and ongoing digital transformation efforts, though its relatively high valuation metrics suggest much of this potential is already priced in. Given the company's financial stability, consistent performance, and strategic initiatives to address competitive threats, a HOLD recommendation is appropriate for investors seeking stable returns with moderate growth potential in the retail sector.

References

[1] Walmart Inc (WMT) Business Description - CSIMarket [2] WMT - Walmart, Inc. (NYSE) - Current Students [3] Walmart (WMT) Earnings Date and Reports 2025 - MarketBeat [4] Walmart (WMT) Revenue 2016-2025 - Stock Analysis [5] WMT | Walmart Inc. Financial Statements - WSJ

Last updated: 4/6/2025