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TTD Investment Analysis Report
Business Understanding
The Trade Desk (TTD) operates a demand-side platform for programmatic advertising, focusing on real-time bidding to purchase digital ad space across various channels and formats [1]. The company charges a percentage fee from clients' media budgets and maintains a global sales team while offering a self-service platform for managing digital advertising campaigns [1][3]. TTD emphasizes transparency and efficiency in digital advertising solutions, maintaining independence from the supply side by owning no SSPs or ad inventory [1][5].
Latest Quarterly Performance
- TTD reported Q4 2024 earnings on February 12, 2025, with an EPS of $0.36, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.57 by $0.21 [1].
- Revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2024, was $741.01 million, representing 22.32% year-over-year growth [2].
- The company issued Q1 2025 revenue guidance of approximately $575 million, below the consensus estimate of $582.7 million [1].
- TTD's net profit margins improved to 16.1% compared to 9.2% in the previous year, indicating enhanced profitability despite the earnings miss [1].
Revenue & Growth Analysis
- TTD has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.86% [3].
- Annual revenue reached $2.445 billion in 2024, up from $1.946 billion in 2023, representing a 25.63% year-over-year increase [1][4].
- The company has consistently outperformed the broader programmatic advertising market, taking approximately 700 basis points of market share between 2017 and 2022 [5].
- TTD's revenue has grown dramatically from $114 million in 2015 to $2.445 billion in 2024, demonstrating consistent long-term growth [4].
- Earnings have grown at an average annual rate of 11.6% over the past 5 years, with accelerating growth of 119.7% over the past year, exceeding the Media industry average of 26.4% [1].
Financial Health
- TTD maintains a strong balance sheet with no total debt, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0%, indicating excellent financial stability [1][2].
- The company's total debt to total capital ratio is minimal at 0.7% as of 2023, having decreased from 1.5% in 2019 [5].
- TTD reported total cash of $1.921 billion in 2024, providing substantial liquidity for operations and strategic investments [2].
- The company generates strong free cash flow, which supports its valuation and provides flexibility for future growth initiatives [3][4].
- TTD's return on equity stands at 13.3%, demonstrating efficient use of shareholder capital [1].
Management Quality
Jeff Green, co-founder and CEO since 2009, leads TTD with a management team that includes Jed Dederick as Chief Revenue Officer and Samantha Jacobson as Chief Strategy Officer [1][3]. The leadership team has demonstrated a consistent focus on innovation and platform development, particularly in the connected TV (CTV) market, positioning the company to capture future growth opportunities [2].
Valuation
Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, TTD's intrinsic value is estimated at $43.29, suggesting the current market price of $46.24 represents a slight overvaluation of approximately 6.8% [3]. However, another valuation model suggests a fair value of $100.96, indicating the stock could be trading at a significant discount of over 50% [4]. TTD trades at a forward P/E ratio of 43.62, reflecting the market's expectations for continued strong growth [1].
Risks and Concerns
TTD faces intense competition in the digital advertising industry, particularly from major players like Google and Amazon who possess greater financial and technical resources [2][4]. The company must continuously innovate to maintain its market position while navigating evolving privacy regulations and potential changes in market dynamics that could impact growth rates [3][4].
Conclusion
Despite recent earnings disappointments and valuation concerns, TTD demonstrates strong fundamentals with impressive revenue growth, excellent financial health, and a solid competitive position in the programmatic advertising market. Given its debt-free status, consistent growth trajectory, and opportunities in emerging advertising segments, TTD represents a HOLD recommendation for investors willing to weather short-term volatility for potential long-term gains.
References
[1] The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD): Business Model Canvas - https://dcfmodeling.com/products/ttd-business-model-canvas [2] Decoding The Trade Desk Inc (TTD): A Strategic SWOT Insight - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/decoding-trade-desk-inc-ttd-050821998.html [3] Trade Desk (TTD) Earnings Date and Reports 2025 - MarketBeat - https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TTD/earnings/ [4] Trade Desk Revenue 2015-2024 | TTD - Macrotrends - https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TTD/trade-desk/revenue [5] The Trade Desk (TTD) - A Champion of the Open Web - https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/the-trade-desk-ttd-a-champion-of
Last updated: 4/6/2025