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KKR Investment Analysis Report
Business Understanding
KKR & Co. Inc. is a global investment firm specializing in private equity, real assets, credit, and hedge funds with a strong emphasis on long-term value creation and operational excellence [1][2]. Founded in 1976 by Jerome Kohlberg, Henry Kravis, and George Roberts, KKR has grown into one of the most influential firms in the industry, employing over 4,490 professionals across offices worldwide [1]. The company generates revenue through management fees, performance fees, transaction fees, and investment income from capital deployed by its general partners [4].
Latest Quarterly Performance
- KKR reported Q4 2024 adjusted net income per share of $1.32, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.27, representing a 32% increase from the prior-year quarter [2].
- Total assets under management (AUM) grew 15.3% year-over-year to $637.6 billion, with fee-paying AUM increasing 14.7% to $512 billion as of December 31, 2024 [2].
- Total operating earnings rose 19.5% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, driven by growth in fee-related earnings [2].
- The stock declined 8.53% following the earnings release on February 4, 2025, despite beating estimates [3].
Revenue & Growth Analysis
- KKR has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a 38.97% annual growth rate over the past five years [1].
- The company's total revenue for 2024 reached $21.9 billion, a significant increase from $14.5 billion in 2023 [5].
- Quarterly revenue has shown volatility, with Q4 2024 revenue at $3.26 billion, representing a 23.8% decrease compared to the same quarter in the previous year [5].
- Earnings have grown at an average annual rate of 8.7% over the past five years, outpacing the Capital Markets industry average of 6.7% [2].
- The company's revenue growth rate over five years stands at 38.20%, indicating strong long-term performance despite quarterly fluctuations [4].
Financial Health
- As of the latest reporting period, KKR has a total debt of $50.4 billion against total shareholder equity of $62.0 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 81.4% [1].
- The company's net debt to equity ratio stands at 21.9%, which is considered satisfactory, and has improved from 88.8% over the past five years [1].
- KKR maintains a strong liquidity position with $36.88 billion in cash, though its short-term assets ($45.0 billion) do not fully cover its short-term liabilities ($57.1 billion) [1].
- The company's total assets amount to $360.1 billion with total liabilities of $298.1 billion, reflecting its substantial scale in the asset management industry [1].
- KKR's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13.2%), which could be a potential concern for investors [1].
Management Quality
KKR is led by co-executive chairmen Henry Kravis and George Roberts (founders), with Joseph Bae and Scott Nuttall serving as co-chief executives since 2021 [4][1]. The leadership team has successfully guided the company through significant growth, as evidenced by the tripling of assets under management in Asia since 2019 and the company's consistent outperformance of investment benchmarks by a wide margin, demonstrating strong competitive advantages [1].
Valuation
Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, KKR's estimated intrinsic value is $129.7 per share, suggesting the stock is undervalued by approximately 17% compared to its current market price [1]. However, GuruFocus provides a more conservative valuation, with a GF Value of $103.16 for the current period and significantly lower values for future periods, indicating potential overvaluation [2]. The DCF model considers book value, current free cash flow, business growth rate, and terminal value, with KKR's stock price showing the strongest correlation (91%) with operating cash flow per share [3].
Risks and Concerns
KKR faces several significant risks, including intense competition from major players like Blackstone, Carlyle Group, and Bain Capital in the alternative asset management space [1]. The company is also exposed to market volatility and economic cycles, with performance closely tied to broader market conditions [3]. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny and changes in regulatory frameworks could impact KKR's operations and profitability, particularly as the company continues its expansion and acquisition activities [2][4].
Conclusion
KKR presents a compelling investment opportunity given its strong long-term revenue growth, improving debt-to-equity ratio, and potential undervaluation based on DCF analysis. The company's experienced management team has demonstrated the ability to navigate market challenges while expanding AUM and maintaining solid earnings growth. Despite facing competitive pressures and regulatory risks, KKR's diversified business model and global presence position it well for continued success. A BUY recommendation is warranted for long-term investors seeking exposure to the alternative asset management sector.
References
[1] https://www.compoundingquality.net/p/is-kkr-an-interesting-stock [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kkr-co-kkr-down-20-163109554.html [3] https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/kkr/earnings [4] https://www.wallstreetzen.com/stocks/us/nyse/kkr/revenue [5] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/KKR/kkr/revenue
Last updated: 4/6/2025