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HD Investment Analysis Report

Last updated: 4/6/2025

Business Understanding

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) operates as a major retailer in the home improvement industry, focusing on selling tools, equipment, and supplies to both contractors and individual consumers [2]. The company follows a retail business model, serving as the final link in the supply chain by purchasing goods from distributors for resale to customers [2]. Founded in Atlanta in 1978 by Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank, Home Depot has grown into one of the largest home improvement retailers globally, with a comprehensive product offering that spans from basic home maintenance items to specialized construction materials [3].

Latest Quarterly Performance

  • Home Depot reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 25, 2025, with an EPS of $3.13, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.04 by $0.09 [1][2].
  • The stock price responded positively to the earnings report, increasing by 2.84% from $380.01 to $390.81 the day after the announcement [4].
  • The company's quarterly revenue was $39.70 billion for the quarter ending February 2, 2025, showing 14.14% growth [2].
  • The next earnings report is scheduled for May 20, 2025, with analysts forecasting an EPS of $3.62 [4].

Revenue & Growth Analysis

  • Home Depot's revenue grew at an annual rate of 7.67% over the past five years, demonstrating consistent expansion [1].
  • The company's 5-year revenue CAGR is 9.01%, indicating strong long-term growth momentum [5].
  • For fiscal year 2024, Home Depot reported total revenue of $159.51 billion, representing a 4.48% increase from the previous year's $152.66 billion [3].
  • Despite a slight decline of 3.01% in 2023 (to $152.66 billion from $157.40 billion in 2022), the company has shown resilience by returning to growth in 2024 [3].
  • Home Depot's revenue has more than doubled since 2015, when it reported $88.51 billion, demonstrating the company's ability to expand its market presence over time [3].

Financial Health

  • Home Depot maintains a strong balance sheet, though specific debt figures for HD were not clearly provided in the search results.
  • The company's DCF valuation is $320.01 per share, while the current stock price is $389.69, suggesting the stock may be overvalued with a margin of safety of -21.77% [5].
  • According to some valuation models, Home Depot is considered "fair valued" despite the negative margin of safety [5].
  • Alternative DCF valuations show mixed results, with some models indicating the stock is undervalued ($412.22 vs. market price of $384.01) [2] and others suggesting overvaluation ($365.39 vs. market price of $409.33) [4].
  • The company has maintained strong return on invested capital (ROIC) metrics, averaging 38.00% in recent years, which indicates efficient use of capital [3].

Management Quality

Edward Decker serves as the Chairman of The Home Depot, with approximately 4.5 years in the position, while the overall leadership team is headed by Craig Menear [1][4]. The management team receives a "C+" rating from employees, placing it in the top 50% of companies of similar size, suggesting moderate satisfaction with leadership [4]. The executive team includes Richard McPhail as Executive VP & CFO, Teresa Roseborough as Executive VP, and Ann-Marie Campbell as Senior Executive Vice President, with most senior executives maintaining significant ownership stakes in the company [1].

Valuation

Home Depot's current valuation presents a mixed picture across different models. The DCF valuation of $320.01 per share compared to the market price of $389.69 indicates a potential overvaluation of 21.77% [5]. However, some alternative DCF models suggest the stock could be undervalued, with one calculation showing an intrinsic value of $412.22 versus a market price of $384.01 [2]. Using trailing twelve-month Free Cash Flow per Share, another valuation model estimates an intrinsic value of $315.15, again suggesting the stock is trading above its fundamental value [5].

Risks and Concerns

Home Depot faces significant risks from strong competition in the home improvement retail sector, which could adversely affect prices and demand for its products and services and potentially decrease its market share [1]. The highly competitive nature of the industry could lead to intense price wars and higher marketing and advertising costs as the company strives to maintain its competitive position [2]. Additionally, changing technology and consumer expectations require Home Depot to continuously innovate and maintain its competitive edge to mitigate competitive risks [3].

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, Home Depot presents a mixed investment opportunity. While the company demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, current valuation metrics suggest the stock may be trading above its intrinsic value. Given the competitive risks and potential overvaluation, a HOLD recommendation seems appropriate for existing investors, while new investors might consider waiting for a more favorable entry point with a greater margin of safety.