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CHWY Investment Analysis Report

Last updated: 3/26/2025

Business Understanding

Chewy operates as an online pet supply retailer with a subscription-focused business model that emphasizes customer service and convenience. The company's Autoship program, which allows customers to set up recurring deliveries of pet supplies, generates over 60% of its revenue and serves as a cornerstone for customer retention and recurring revenue [1]. Chewy's business model combines customer-centric strategies with innovative technology to create a loyal customer base in the competitive e-commerce landscape [1].

Latest Quarterly Performance

  • Reported earnings of $0.28 per share for Q4 2025 (reported March 26, 2025), significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share, reflecting a positive earnings surprise of 33.33% [1].
  • Revenue reached $3.25 billion in Q4 2025, exceeding estimates of $3.20 billion [3].
  • The company issued FY 2025 revenue guidance of $12.3-$12.5 billion, which aligns with the consensus revenue estimate of $12.4 billion [3].
  • Next earnings report is expected on June 4, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of $0.34 per share, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.67% [1].

Revenue & Growth Analysis

  • Chewy's revenue in the last twelve months (LTM) reached $11.44 billion, with 4.80% growth in the most recent quarter [4].
  • The company has maintained strong historical growth, with a 5-year average revenue growth rate of 23.90% per year [3].
  • Revenue CAGR over the last five years stands at an impressive 25.8%, demonstrating consistent long-term growth [5].
  • Quarterly revenue has shown steady progression, increasing from $11.049 billion in October 2023 to $11.44 billion in October 2024 [2].
  • The Autoship subscription program continues to be a key revenue driver, representing over 60% of the company's revenue and offering customers savings of 5-10% on recurring orders [2].

Financial Health

  • Chewy maintains a debt-free position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0%, indicating strong financial discipline and minimal financial leverage risk [2].
  • The company has $507.52 million in cash and $543.63 million in debt, resulting in a small net debt position of $36.11 million or $0.09 per share [5].
  • Chewy's earnings have shown remarkable improvement, growing at an average annual rate of 79.9% over the past 5 years, significantly outpacing the Specialty Retail industry average of 14.3% [2].
  • Net profit margins have improved from 0.1% last year to 3.5% currently, showing progress in profitability [2].
  • The company's ABL Credit Facility remains undrawn, providing $782.6 million in additional borrowing capacity for potential growth initiatives [1].

Management Quality

Chewy is led by CEO Sumit Singh, who has served in this role since March 2018 and led the company through its IPO in 2019 [5]. Under Singh's leadership, Chewy has delivered transformative growth, tripling in size from 2018 to 2023 to reach $11 billion in revenue, while establishing a clear path to sustainable profitability and earning global recognition as a leading innovative brand [5]. The management team includes Raymond Svider as Chairman, with co-founder Ryan Cohen maintaining involvement with the company [3][5].

Valuation

Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, Chewy's estimated fair value is approximately $26.65 per share, suggesting the current trading price of around $33.80 indicates potential overvaluation of about 19% [1][3]. Analyst consensus price targets align with this DCF valuation, with a median target of $26.54 [3]. The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 140.90, which is significantly higher than its trailing P/E of 37.16, suggesting the market has high growth expectations that may be difficult to meet [3].

Risks and Concerns

Chewy faces significant competitive pressures in the pet products market, particularly from Amazon's pet supply segment and traditional retail expansion, which could erode its market share and premium positioning [1][3]. Additionally, the company is vulnerable to shifts in pet ownership trends, economic recessions affecting discretionary consumer spending, and potential regulatory changes in the e-commerce space [3]. These competitive and market condition risks pose substantial challenges to Chewy's continued growth and profitability.

Conclusion

While Chewy demonstrates strong revenue growth, improving profitability, and excellent financial discipline with minimal debt, its current valuation appears to be ahead of fundamental value based on DCF analysis. Given the intensifying competition in the pet supply market and the stock's premium valuation, I recommend a HOLD position for current investors and suggest potential new investors wait for a more attractive entry point closer to the $26-27 range.